Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.072934 0.084106 0.096797 0.112357 0.131029 0.152844 0.180455
2025-11-02 0.054627 0.067566 0.083577 0.105096 0.133644 0.170766 0.223606
2025-11-09 0.041542 0.054395 0.071463 0.096262 0.132182 0.183634 0.265418
2025-11-16 0.034202 0.047213 0.065675 0.094588 0.140275 0.212519 0.341612
2025-11-23 0.028518 0.041270 0.060485 0.092747 0.148130 0.244638 0.439006
2025-11-30 0.024556 0.037147 0.057229 0.093306 0.160570 0.290080 0.586537
2025-12-07 0.021297 0.033538 0.054109 0.093478 0.172940 0.341843 0.783177
2025-12-14 0.018181 0.029627 0.049743 0.090438 0.178634 0.384036 0.993726
2025-12-21 0.015009 0.025106 0.043478 0.082297 0.171358 0.394939 1.134859
2025-12-28 0.013350 0.023021 0.041350 0.082142 0.182444 0.458985 1.513174
2026-01-04 0.012161 0.021617 0.040281 0.084076 0.199821 0.552709 2.130110
2026-01-11 0.011009 0.020100 0.038709 0.084519 0.213961 0.648399 2.927130
2026-01-18 0.009970 0.018681 0.037158 0.084863 0.229110 0.764341 4.112714
2026-01-25 0.008903 0.017049 0.034852 0.082724 0.236280 0.859752 5.468532
2026-02-01 0.007856 0.015311 0.032007 0.078441 0.234970 0.921877 6.829368
2026-02-08 0.007238 0.014418 0.030994 0.079092 0.251887 1.091967 10.013811
2026-02-15 0.006668 0.013550 0.029891 0.079221 0.267518 1.279863 14.696316
2026-02-22 0.006243 0.012955 0.029368 0.081048 0.291731 1.559765 23.518922
2026-03-01 0.005841 0.012354 0.028721 0.082334 0.315083 1.881305 38.034120
2026-03-08 0.005366 0.011518 0.027306 0.080639 0.324020 2.118493 55.562365
2026-03-15 0.004774 0.010327 0.024736 0.074218 0.306183 2.104769 64.268154
2026-03-22 0.004483 0.009848 0.024088 0.074643 0.325126 2.484512 106.906565
2026-03-29 0.004275 0.009553 0.023915 0.076844 0.356189 3.086030 208.591227